Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting prognosis of high-grade chondrosarcoma: A surveillance, epidemiology, and end results-based population analysis | APOA

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    • Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting prognosis of high-grade chondrosarcoma: A surveillance, epidemiology, and end results-based population analysis

      Alexander J. Duke Stephen Bowen Samir Baig Dorian Cohen David E Komatsu James Nicholson Hide all

      Abstract

      Background

      The incidence of chondrosarcoma is increasing every year, and the treatment and prognosis of patients with high-grade chondrosarcoma are becoming more and more important. Nomogram is a tool that can quickly and easily predict the overall survival of tumor patients. Therefore, the development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival in patients with high-grade chondrosarcoma was desired.

      Methods

      We retrospectively collected 396 patients with high-grade chondrosarcoma from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2015. Randomly divided into model and validation groups, the best cut-off values for age and tumor size grouping were derived by using X-tile software. Then, independent prognostic factors for high-grade chondrosarcoma were derived by SPSS.26 univariate and multivariate Cox analyses analysis in the model group, and the model was evaluated by using R software, using C-indix and ROC curves, and finally these independent prognostic factors were included in Nomogram.

      Results

      396 patients were randomly assigned to the modelling group (n = 280) or the validation group (n = 116). Age, tissue-type, tumor size, AJCC stage, regional expansion and surgery were identified as independent prognostic factors (p < 0.05) which further combined to construct a nomogram. The C-index of internal validation for overall survival(OS) was 0.757, while the C-index of external validation for overall survival(OS) was 0.832. Both internal and external calibration curves show a good agreement between nomogram prediction and actual survival.

      Conclusion

      In this study, we established age, tumour size, AJCC stage, tissue type, surgery and tumor extension as independent prognostic factors for high-grade chondrosarcoma and constructed a nomogram to predict 3- and 5-year survival rates for high-grade chondrosarcoma.

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